New analysis from ResiClub shows 68 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets are now posting year-over-year price declines. Another 232 are still climbing. For builders and developers, knowing which camp your market falls into matters more than the national headline.
Quick takeaways
- Home prices are up just 1.1% nationally year-over-year, but 68 of the 300 largest metros are still falling.
- Texas, Florida, and Colorado markets are seeing the sharpest corrections, largely a hangover from pandemic-era overheating.
- Northeast and Midwest markets with tight inventory are still posting modest gains.
- Where you build matters as much as what you build right now. Local conditions, not the national average, should drive your pricing and underwriting.
Which housing markets are seeing falling prices in 2026?
A soft national average is hiding a split market.
Nationally, home prices are up 1.1% year-over-year as of June 2026, according to ResiClub’s analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index. That’s a little better than the 0.2% growth rate from a year ago, and better than the -0.01% low from August 2025. But that single number is doing a lot of work to smooth over a market that’s actually pretty divided.
ResiClub’s research found 68 of the 300 largest metro markets in the country are seeing outright price declines right now. The other 232 are still posting gains. Zoom into just the 50 biggest metros and 20 of them, or 40%, are negative year-over-year.
For some perspective on how unusual that split is, here’s how many of the 300 largest markets were falling year-over-year in past stretches, per ResiClub’s data:
- June 2022 to Jan. 2023 – 110 markets falling (37%)
- June 2023 to Jan. 2024 – 26 markets falling (9%)
- June 2024 to June 2025 – 110 markets falling (37%)
- June 2025 to June 2026 – 68 markets falling (23%)
The number of declining markets has leveled off over the past year after a rough 2024 and early 2025. That’s the good part. The market is still soft, but the bleeding has slowed down.
Sun Belt and Mountain West markets are still working through it
The places that ran hottest during the pandemic are cooling the most.
The metros seeing the sharpest pullbacks are concentrated in Texas, Florida, and Colorado, along with other Sun Belt and Mountain West markets. These are largely the same places that saw the biggest price run-ups during the pandemic, when appreciation outran local incomes by a wide margin.
The numbers make the point better than any explanation could. Austin is sitting 27.3% below its 2022 peak right now. Hartford, Connecticut is 27.7% above its 2022 peak. Same country, same month, completely different housing markets.
Builders in these overheated regions have added fuel to the fire, too. New home supply in the Sun Belt has stayed abundant, and builders have leaned on incentives and price cuts to keep sales moving. That pulls buyers who might have bought resale toward new construction instead, which piles even more inventory onto the resale side. It’s a loop that keeps resale prices pinned down.
Where inventory is still tight, prices are holding up
The Northeast and Midwest are playing a different game.
Not every market is in correction mode. Pockets of the Northeast and Midwest are still seeing modest price growth, mostly because active inventory in those areas remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Less supply gives sellers more leverage.
Two builders in two different states can be looking at completely different financing conditions right now, even building the exact same product. That gap matters when you’re planning a deal.
What this means for your capital strategy
Where you build matters as much as what you build.
If your projects sit in a market with rising inventory and softening prices, your pricing, your underwriting, and your exit timeline need to reflect that. A few things worth keeping in mind for the rest of 2026:
- Check your local inventory trend, not just the national number. A market posting a 1.1% national gain can still have metros sitting double digits below peak.
- Build in pricing flexibility from the start. If you’re building in a softer Sun Belt or Mountain West market, plan for incentives as part of your pro forma instead of a surprise later.
- Move fast where inventory is tight. Northeast and Midwest markets with constrained supply still reward builders who close on schedule.
- Talk to your lender before the market does. Financing that flexes with local conditions matters more in a split market like this one.
None of this means the housing market is falling apart. It means the market has split in two, and builders who know which side they’re standing on will make sharper decisions on land, pricing, and timelines.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many U.S. housing markets have falling home prices in 2026? 68 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets posted year-over-year price declines as of June 2026, according to ResiClub’s analysis of Zillow data. The other 232 markets are still posting gains.
Which states have the biggest home price declines right now? Texas, Florida, and Colorado have some of the sharpest corrections, along with other Sun Belt and Mountain West markets that saw the biggest price run-ups during the pandemic housing boom.
Is the housing market correction over? Not entirely, but it has slowed. The number of markets with falling prices dropped from 110 a year ago to 68 now, suggesting the broader correction has stabilized rather than deepened.
What does this mean for construction loan underwriting? Builders should underwrite based on local market conditions, not national averages. A market posting national gains can still have individual metros sitting well below their 2022 peak, which affects pricing, exit timelines, and how much cushion to build into a pro forma.
Building with CoFi Lending
CoFi works with builders, developers, and brokers across a wide range of markets, and we structure financing around your project’s actual conditions, not a generic national trend. If you want to talk through how current market conditions affect your next build, reach out to our team.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a commitment to lend, or a guarantee of specific loan terms. Actual rates, terms, and approvals depend on individual borrower qualifications, project characteristics, and market conditions.
